I wrote about the election about 8 months ago. At that time I considered Trump a vanity candidate with no hope of winning. I'm surprised at his position now. This begs the question 'why'? Much of both the Republican and Democratic media are portraying Trump as an egotistical blowhard, and his supporters as idiots. I believe this is wrong, and that there are several reasons he is currently in front of the Republican filed.
First, he does not have to tailor his message to suit big donors. Donald Trump has a net worth between 4.5 and 10 billion dollars. Obama's successful 2012 bid cost about 1 billion dollars. Trump can thus be completely self-funded, at least technically. In the early part of the campaign he has run one of the most cost-effective campaigns in history, with outlays of about 35 million, a pittance compared to Bush's 125 million. This is in large part because he is getting more media exposure than any other candidate by far. NPR did a nice piece about negative reviews. They increase sales by about 40%! All of the negative press is just that- press. I read several sites every day. Every one of them has a Trump story every day, often as a headline. The media are financing the campaign they purport to despise.
Second, he is unfiltered. There is no respect for the political niceties. People's disabilities have been imitated, comments made about bleeding in women, people called out as 'seriously overweight', accusations made against illegal immigrants. The press have gone crazy over this, calling him misogynist, racist, fat shaming and the like. Except that, for many people, he is simply saying the truth. The ejected protestor really was very obese, and he's raging about....food stamps! Doesn't anyone else see the irony and humor here? He's not being fat shamed, for God's sake, unless any mention at all of someone's appearance is off limits. It's a self-evident truth, and a pithy dismissal of a heckler. Most of his comments fall in the same category. Trump kicked out three hecklers that night. On tossing the second he said 'isn't a Trump rally much more exciting than these other guys?'. Well, it is.
Last, and most important, he is saying what many people want to hear. He is not satisfying the Left or the Right. Many of his social beliefs are in line with a substantial number from both parties. He is not pro-life. Good. Most people are not, either, at least as the right wing of the Republican Party defines it. He favors evicting illegal immigrants and strong border enforcement. So do most Americans, although with rather greater nuance. He does not want to dismantle our social and medical services. He speaks his mind. Good. Many are tired of being unable to acknowledge the most obvious realities in favor of socio-political fiction.
Trump may in fact represent a significant shift in American politics, and I understand the concerns that he will erode our institutions. In the eyes of many, they are already eroded. I have made a different analogy. I think he is, whether win or lose, the 21st century Reagan. Reagan played well in public for 1980- suit, white shirt, tie, erect posture. Trump plays well in the soundbite era- short on substance, long on feeling and expression. He is not a pure Conservative as it is defined today (neither would Reagan if alive), and he is not a Democrat.
Writers from both sides are attacking him. This is the first time I can recall a Republican front runner not being publicly supported by the Party apparatus. There is open discussion of 'ganging up on him'. I think, however, that talk is foolish and pointless. There is no gang tackling in politics. There is only one winner, and to be the front runner you have to win. If both parties are really serious about defeating Trump they must find a way to match his appeal, which is broad. They are spending too much time howling about his negatives and insulting his supporters. Both are losing strategies. It is like watching a losing football team complain about the referees. Rubio, Cruz and Clinton are not appealing to voters in the same way. In November there will be a solid 20-25% who would vote Democrat even if they ran a criminal philanderer moron. There is a similar chunk who will vote for anyone at all who is the Republican nominee. Trump scores best among everyone else- independents and moderate Democrats.
For years I have said 'when the shit hits the fan, don't open your mouth and scream. You get a mouthful of shit. Turn off the fan'. Trump's opponents would be wise to heed that advice, stop screaming and figure out how to win, before they lose for real.
Ted
First, he does not have to tailor his message to suit big donors. Donald Trump has a net worth between 4.5 and 10 billion dollars. Obama's successful 2012 bid cost about 1 billion dollars. Trump can thus be completely self-funded, at least technically. In the early part of the campaign he has run one of the most cost-effective campaigns in history, with outlays of about 35 million, a pittance compared to Bush's 125 million. This is in large part because he is getting more media exposure than any other candidate by far. NPR did a nice piece about negative reviews. They increase sales by about 40%! All of the negative press is just that- press. I read several sites every day. Every one of them has a Trump story every day, often as a headline. The media are financing the campaign they purport to despise.
Second, he is unfiltered. There is no respect for the political niceties. People's disabilities have been imitated, comments made about bleeding in women, people called out as 'seriously overweight', accusations made against illegal immigrants. The press have gone crazy over this, calling him misogynist, racist, fat shaming and the like. Except that, for many people, he is simply saying the truth. The ejected protestor really was very obese, and he's raging about....food stamps! Doesn't anyone else see the irony and humor here? He's not being fat shamed, for God's sake, unless any mention at all of someone's appearance is off limits. It's a self-evident truth, and a pithy dismissal of a heckler. Most of his comments fall in the same category. Trump kicked out three hecklers that night. On tossing the second he said 'isn't a Trump rally much more exciting than these other guys?'. Well, it is.
Last, and most important, he is saying what many people want to hear. He is not satisfying the Left or the Right. Many of his social beliefs are in line with a substantial number from both parties. He is not pro-life. Good. Most people are not, either, at least as the right wing of the Republican Party defines it. He favors evicting illegal immigrants and strong border enforcement. So do most Americans, although with rather greater nuance. He does not want to dismantle our social and medical services. He speaks his mind. Good. Many are tired of being unable to acknowledge the most obvious realities in favor of socio-political fiction.
Trump may in fact represent a significant shift in American politics, and I understand the concerns that he will erode our institutions. In the eyes of many, they are already eroded. I have made a different analogy. I think he is, whether win or lose, the 21st century Reagan. Reagan played well in public for 1980- suit, white shirt, tie, erect posture. Trump plays well in the soundbite era- short on substance, long on feeling and expression. He is not a pure Conservative as it is defined today (neither would Reagan if alive), and he is not a Democrat.
Writers from both sides are attacking him. This is the first time I can recall a Republican front runner not being publicly supported by the Party apparatus. There is open discussion of 'ganging up on him'. I think, however, that talk is foolish and pointless. There is no gang tackling in politics. There is only one winner, and to be the front runner you have to win. If both parties are really serious about defeating Trump they must find a way to match his appeal, which is broad. They are spending too much time howling about his negatives and insulting his supporters. Both are losing strategies. It is like watching a losing football team complain about the referees. Rubio, Cruz and Clinton are not appealing to voters in the same way. In November there will be a solid 20-25% who would vote Democrat even if they ran a criminal philanderer moron. There is a similar chunk who will vote for anyone at all who is the Republican nominee. Trump scores best among everyone else- independents and moderate Democrats.
For years I have said 'when the shit hits the fan, don't open your mouth and scream. You get a mouthful of shit. Turn off the fan'. Trump's opponents would be wise to heed that advice, stop screaming and figure out how to win, before they lose for real.
Ted
Where's my comment?
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