It has been a busy week. Trump got acquitted at his impeachment trial. He gave a rousing State of the Union address. Then a federal court said his business was not a violation of the emoluments clause. What are the consequences of all this? What the hell just happened? What are the Haradrim (more later)?
With acquittal have come the predictable, vitriolic, partisan assessments. They are all crass and tasteless. Trump paraded a couple of big type headlines at the National Prayer Breakfast. He was promptly attacked for co-opting religion for political gain. Schiff announced further investigations, and an intention to subpoena further witnesses. A second impeachment referral has been bruited. Trump says he is completely exonerated. Democratic leaders say he was still impeached and that is an indelible stain. As I have often been in the last couple of years, I am reminded of two small children arguing. Did not! Did too! I'm faster than you! Are not! Kindergarteners in 1500 dollar suits.....
Did Trump do it? I don't know. The timeline is pretty damning and suggestive. Sondland claimed that everyone knew there wa a quid pro quo, that everyone was in the loop. Unfortunately, no further witnesses or direct evidence was ever produced because the House did not go to court to enforce its subpoenas in the face of assertion of executive privilege. Instead they brought a case that, in criminal terms, was suggestive but with no direct evidence. They engaged in a giant political version of post hoc reasoning- B followed A, therefore A must have caused B. Except everyone knows that, no matter how superficially appealing, post hoc reasoning is not valid. You have to show a linkage between two events. Sadly, our political process has devolved into making unsupported allegations and insinuating evil, then letting those claims percolate among the uninformed to get an emotional response. That works with the media but isn't enough for any formal, legal process.
Democratic calls for witnesses were obviously self-serving and would not be permitted in a criminal trial. At trial the defense must know everything said against it via discovery. You don't get deus ex machina witnesses that turn the case. That's for TV and movies. If a prosecutor prepares a bad case they lose. That is exactly what happened at impeachment, and claims of unfairness and cover-up because there were no further witnesses is bunk. If you wanted that information so badly Congress could and should have gone to court to enforce their rights, not whine after the fact.
The nature of the process was clear in the vote. Every Democrat was satisfied with the 'evidence', and all but one Republican unsatisfied. The overtly partisan nature of the trial is further attested to by the constant calls for and threats of impeachment since Trump was elected. Democrats excluded Republican questions during the House investigation, and multiple ties between Schiff, Ciaramarella, Vindman, and other Democratic staffers have been alleged.
It is unclear to me whether what Trump did was a crime at all. He is obliged to pursue potential wrongdoing of Americans overseas. The Ukrainian prosecutor thinks Hunter Biden ought to be checked out. The people directly involved in the call didn't feel pressured. A president can determine when aid is released, within the statutory limits set by Congress, and that happened. The aid was released on time. You cannot impeach someone for state of mind.
The fallout over all of this is I think quite predictable. Trump's popularity is higher than it's ever been. Democrats were badly mistaken if they thought impeachment would sully the president. He is taking a victory lap when unemployment is persistently the lowest it has been in my lifetime, real wage growth is 3%, and the economy added 225,000 jobs last month. As Proximo said to Maximus, when he asked to kill Commodus, "Why should I do that? He makes me rich." We are so cynical about our political process that even if Trump did make aid and conditional on a political favor we now see that as just normal Washington life, and that was true before anyone even heard of Hunter Biden.
Democrats have repeatedly said that the American people are the ultimate judges here, and they are right. What do Americans see here? Democrats have called for impeachment since day 1. The process was rushed, then the articles delayed for a month after we were told time was of the essence. Now further investigations are threatened, when a large majority of Americans are sick to death of each party investigating the other. Congress is not for partisan advancement but public service. Everyone seems to expect that except the very people we elect to do the job. Unsurprisingly, Congressional approval is incredibly low, and no one wants to hear any more about investigations.
The short memory of the American voter is famous. Politicians count on it, and they're usually right. This time they're not. We have watched a three year long, grossly partisan attack on the president. Every allegation has been beaten back, multiple so-called witnesses' credibility destroyed, process obviously manipulated for partisan gain, admittedly false material used in a secret court to get wiretaps. Is THAT what we want in America? Trump is crude, foul-mouthed, inexperienced, crass, loud, bombastic, but he's better than a bunch of obvious manipulative liars. Many complain he is not presidential, me among them. But for good or ill, he is the quintessential American of the 21st century, a predictable product of a culture that celebrates the loud, expensive and ostentatious, where money is more impressive than morals or minds. The anti-fa, street violence, and manufactured 'evidence' have no place even in the debased America of today.
Given the choice between the partisan insanity we have all put up with for three years, or a distilled American who has brought people more jobs and money, more companies, more factories, and less taxes, any fool can figure out who wins.
The the result of the last three years of partisan attacks is a week of complete triumph for Trump. American won't remember every detail of the last three years, but they will remember the insanity that has filled our media for three years, and they will look at their overtime pay and lower tax bills, and they will ask themselves what the hell Trump ever did to be hated and persecuted like this. And they will not want to hear any more about investigations, Ukraine, Russia, peeing hookers, spurious claims of judicial misdeeds, and fake dossiers.
Barring a mess in the nest nine months, Trump got re-elected this week by his own opponents.
With acquittal have come the predictable, vitriolic, partisan assessments. They are all crass and tasteless. Trump paraded a couple of big type headlines at the National Prayer Breakfast. He was promptly attacked for co-opting religion for political gain. Schiff announced further investigations, and an intention to subpoena further witnesses. A second impeachment referral has been bruited. Trump says he is completely exonerated. Democratic leaders say he was still impeached and that is an indelible stain. As I have often been in the last couple of years, I am reminded of two small children arguing. Did not! Did too! I'm faster than you! Are not! Kindergarteners in 1500 dollar suits.....
Did Trump do it? I don't know. The timeline is pretty damning and suggestive. Sondland claimed that everyone knew there wa a quid pro quo, that everyone was in the loop. Unfortunately, no further witnesses or direct evidence was ever produced because the House did not go to court to enforce its subpoenas in the face of assertion of executive privilege. Instead they brought a case that, in criminal terms, was suggestive but with no direct evidence. They engaged in a giant political version of post hoc reasoning- B followed A, therefore A must have caused B. Except everyone knows that, no matter how superficially appealing, post hoc reasoning is not valid. You have to show a linkage between two events. Sadly, our political process has devolved into making unsupported allegations and insinuating evil, then letting those claims percolate among the uninformed to get an emotional response. That works with the media but isn't enough for any formal, legal process.
Democratic calls for witnesses were obviously self-serving and would not be permitted in a criminal trial. At trial the defense must know everything said against it via discovery. You don't get deus ex machina witnesses that turn the case. That's for TV and movies. If a prosecutor prepares a bad case they lose. That is exactly what happened at impeachment, and claims of unfairness and cover-up because there were no further witnesses is bunk. If you wanted that information so badly Congress could and should have gone to court to enforce their rights, not whine after the fact.
The nature of the process was clear in the vote. Every Democrat was satisfied with the 'evidence', and all but one Republican unsatisfied. The overtly partisan nature of the trial is further attested to by the constant calls for and threats of impeachment since Trump was elected. Democrats excluded Republican questions during the House investigation, and multiple ties between Schiff, Ciaramarella, Vindman, and other Democratic staffers have been alleged.
It is unclear to me whether what Trump did was a crime at all. He is obliged to pursue potential wrongdoing of Americans overseas. The Ukrainian prosecutor thinks Hunter Biden ought to be checked out. The people directly involved in the call didn't feel pressured. A president can determine when aid is released, within the statutory limits set by Congress, and that happened. The aid was released on time. You cannot impeach someone for state of mind.
The fallout over all of this is I think quite predictable. Trump's popularity is higher than it's ever been. Democrats were badly mistaken if they thought impeachment would sully the president. He is taking a victory lap when unemployment is persistently the lowest it has been in my lifetime, real wage growth is 3%, and the economy added 225,000 jobs last month. As Proximo said to Maximus, when he asked to kill Commodus, "Why should I do that? He makes me rich." We are so cynical about our political process that even if Trump did make aid and conditional on a political favor we now see that as just normal Washington life, and that was true before anyone even heard of Hunter Biden.
Democrats have repeatedly said that the American people are the ultimate judges here, and they are right. What do Americans see here? Democrats have called for impeachment since day 1. The process was rushed, then the articles delayed for a month after we were told time was of the essence. Now further investigations are threatened, when a large majority of Americans are sick to death of each party investigating the other. Congress is not for partisan advancement but public service. Everyone seems to expect that except the very people we elect to do the job. Unsurprisingly, Congressional approval is incredibly low, and no one wants to hear any more about investigations.
The short memory of the American voter is famous. Politicians count on it, and they're usually right. This time they're not. We have watched a three year long, grossly partisan attack on the president. Every allegation has been beaten back, multiple so-called witnesses' credibility destroyed, process obviously manipulated for partisan gain, admittedly false material used in a secret court to get wiretaps. Is THAT what we want in America? Trump is crude, foul-mouthed, inexperienced, crass, loud, bombastic, but he's better than a bunch of obvious manipulative liars. Many complain he is not presidential, me among them. But for good or ill, he is the quintessential American of the 21st century, a predictable product of a culture that celebrates the loud, expensive and ostentatious, where money is more impressive than morals or minds. The anti-fa, street violence, and manufactured 'evidence' have no place even in the debased America of today.
Given the choice between the partisan insanity we have all put up with for three years, or a distilled American who has brought people more jobs and money, more companies, more factories, and less taxes, any fool can figure out who wins.
The the result of the last three years of partisan attacks is a week of complete triumph for Trump. American won't remember every detail of the last three years, but they will remember the insanity that has filled our media for three years, and they will look at their overtime pay and lower tax bills, and they will ask themselves what the hell Trump ever did to be hated and persecuted like this. And they will not want to hear any more about investigations, Ukraine, Russia, peeing hookers, spurious claims of judicial misdeeds, and fake dossiers.
Barring a mess in the nest nine months, Trump got re-elected this week by his own opponents.
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