As most people know, Kabul fell to the Taliban. This has provoked a firestorm of criticism of Joe Biden from all quarters. For me it raised questions about why we were there, what our withdrawal means, and what we ought to have expected. A little history is necessary before answering these questions.
Afghanistan was ruled by kings in the 20th century, until 1973, when a communist coup deposed the last king. The communist government, supported by Russia, did not do well nor was it terribly popular, leading the Soviet Union to intervene directly in 1979. They invaded, reaching and taking Kabul in just a few days, and installed a communist regime more to their liking.
What followed was a civil war between the communist regime and the mujahedeen, the Afghan term for guerillas. It became a proxy war, with the Soviet Union providing troops, weapons, tanks, and air support to the communist government, and the US providing weapons and money to the mujahedeen via Pakistan. In 1992, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia withdrew, and Afghanistan was devastated. Many villages had been destroyed, there were literally millions of land mines in every part of the country, agriculture had been disrupted, and an estimated 6 million people had died or fled.
The mujahedeen were also exceptionally brutal, mutilating their prisoners so commonly that Russian soldiers saved a bullet or grenade to commit suicide rather than be captured. British soldiers had learned to do the same in their abortive Afghan War a century earlier. Prisoners were burned alive, or castrated and partially skinned, then left alive surrounded by booby traps. Another version was 'the puppet'. A prisoner was blinded, castrated, and had all four limbs cut off, leaving him only his tongue. He was then placed in the road in front of a Russian convoy, to beg for death from his comrades. And these were the 'good guys', the side we supported.
In this mess and horror a government of sorts was formed. Before it could take hold, students (taleban in Pasthun) under the teaching and guidance of Mullah Mohammed Omar, resisted the mujahedeen and tribal groups trying to govern the country. They followed an extremely harsh and limiting form of Sharia law promulgated by Omar, and sought to establish a more conservative, Islamic government. The Taliban ultimately gained control of much of the country in 1996, with the prominent exception of an area called The Northern Alliance. The Taliban ruled until 2001 with a ferocity and narrowness rarely seen before. Women were banned from public work or even appearing in public without a male escort. Pictures of people and animals were destroyed as a form of idolatry. Music and sports were banned. Exceptionally harsh penalties were enacted. The Taliban regime welcomed Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, among others, when he was driven from bases in Africa and Pakistan. In September, 2001, al Qaeda planned and executed the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon from bases in Afghanistan.
Later that month, George Bush articulated the US demands of Afghanistan-
Close terrorist training camps.
Hand over leaders of the Al Qaeda network including bin Laden
Return all foreign nationals, including American citizens unjustly detained Taliban leaders refused all these demands, and in response Bush began what is now called the Afghan War. Its aims, as articulated in October, 2001, were rather broader and vaguer than Bush's straightforward goals-
-Destroy al-Qaeda’s grip on Afghanistan
-Disrupt al-Qaeda’s global operations and financing
-Destroy al-Qaeda terrorist training camps.
-Drive the Taliban from power
-Help the people of Afghanistan recover from the Taliban’s reign of terror
-Help Afghans put aside long-standing differences to form a new interim government that represents all Afghans – including women
Initially the war was prosecuted by special forces troops and air power, with almost all ground fighting by locals of The Northern Alliance. Gradually, US forces were increased to deploy more sophisticated weapons and avoid the loyalty problems already being encountered with Afghan troops. We succeeded in driving the Taliban from power in less than three months, and the Northern Alliance assumed governance of the country. We also captured Khalid Sheik Muhammad, and displaced most of Al Qaeda from the Afghan mountains by the spring of 2003. That year ended with only 13,000 US soldiers in Afghanistan. Our physically definable, practical war aims, similar to Bush's original demands, were now achieved.
Unfortunately, we pursued the vaguer governmental and social goals of the war, and conditions deteriorated over the next 3 years, with a resurgent Taliban, factional groups, and Al Qaeda forces all fighting. By late 2010 we had 140,000 men in the country. In May, 2011 bin Laden was found and killed in the territory of our erstwhile ally, Pakistan, and Obama announced a troop drawdown. Within a year we were down to 77,000 soldiers, and by 2014 to only 34,000. Options were developed for a complete military withdrawal, as the US had been training the Afghan military for years, as well as supplying its weapons.
Part of those conditions was a security agreement with Afghanistan, which Hamid Karzai declined to sign. Obama still planned to be out of the country by the end of 2016, but we kept just short of 10,000 men there. Trump wanted to bring everyone home as well, but kept a dwindling force present, falling to 2,500 men by the end of 2020, its stated purpose to provide stability for the Afghan government as it continued to develop.
By 2021, Afghanistan had suffered through 42 years of Russian invasion, civil wars plural, and Taliban oppression. The US had long since achieved its goal of ousting Al Qaeda and killing or capturing its leadership. The Taliban had been driven from power. It was our governmental and social aims, so difficult to define and achieve, that kept the US in the war and the country.
Afghanistan did not develop a strong, central government or any of the institutions we associate with a developed, representative governmental system. Corruption and tribal factionalism remain pervasive. Afghan society remains poor and with poor infrastructure. Of the 36 million Afghans remaining after the Soviet War and Taliban oppression, 110,000 have been killed in ongoing fighting (47,000 military and 63,000 civilian), 2.7 million have fled abroad, mainly to Pakistan and Iraq, and 4 million are displaced within their own country. US aid has totaled 143 billion since 2002, although 88 billion of that was military aid. Only 55 billion was civilian aid, mainly dams, roads, and opium trade suppression. This aid was largely wasted through a combination of corrupt siphoning of direct monetary aid, and the inability to maintain or even use the infrastructure built (there is no purpose in a dam to provide water for villages without pipes, or roads for a world with few cars). Afghanistan is the world's greatest and finest source of opium. This trade was all but destroyed by the Taliban, but was resurgent after 2001. Despite US efforts, last year produced record harvests and profits, a measure not simply of the failure of US aid efforts but of the success of the Taliban, brutal as it is. Unemployment remains 25%, poverty has increased since 2001, now at 47% of the population.
It is gross understatement to say the US failed in its efforts to produce a western democratic state in Afghanistan.
Then, as of three days ago, the Taliban, with startling speed, took control of essentially the entire country. It is now forming a government. Biden has been attacked from all political sides for allowing this. His response has been labeled all manner of things. On social media various claims have been made that we should have stayed, should have committed to transforming Afghan society, increased opportunities for women, for democracy, for whatever.
Most of this is nonsense. We should have expected this day right from the beginning, for multiple reasons. No one has succeeded in conquering or even controlling Afghanistan in more than 2500 years. The nation is largely tribally organized, factionally rather than nationally loyal, violent, and xenophobic. The terrain is brutally inhospitable to formed, regular infantry let alone armor, and conducive to guerilla tactics. We showed astonishing hubris in expecting 'victory'. Afghanistan the land, the society, and the people are all fiercely resistant to outside invasion or control.
Our war aims were vague and meaningless, including societal and governmental transformations, events that are remarkably resistant to the application of military force. Once al Qaeda was destroyed we lost definable goals and experienced mission creep. We became an army trying to stop guerilla violence and alter society. The forces we had armed, the remains of the mujahedeen along with the Taliban, attacked us with the same savagery and ingenuity with which they had humbled the previous heavy, mechanized invader, Russia.
The government and military we tried to create and prop up was completely incapable of creating and executing essential functions. Afghan soldiers have deserted, shot Americans, and even shot each other in factional arguments. The corruption is so obvious there is no faith in governmental institutions, nor should there be. Taliban forces outnumbered us, had strong supply lines, and a powerful religious and social focus on expelling us.
It is not a surprise that we got thrown out. I suspect Biden was not incompetent, but rather that US forces were on the run, and he chose an evacuation over an overt, open-field military defeat. It should also not be surprising there was great social resistance to us. We come across as violent, self-righteous prigs. We condescendingly preach our own superiority, and try to convert Afghans to American ways. Even today, on NPR, the major focus of reportage is the status of women in Afghan society and government. As if that was any of our business or concern! Besides, we have not one moral or behavioral leg to stand on. While we rightly condemn honor killings and acid mutilations, any devout Muslim watching pop entertainers like Britney Spears and Nicki Minaj twerk half naked, spreading their legs to expose skin tight sequined spandex stretched across their pubic mounds, would very reasonably reject American views on the role of women. Given the choice between the chaos of the American invasion and values and Taliban extremism, many understandably supported the Taliban.
Our withdrawal and war aims failure then, could have been predicted from the start. There was never going to be another ending as long as we were invested in changing Afghanistan's social structure and values.
What our withdrawal will mean depends I think a great deal on our actions in the next couple of months. Initial reactions do not make it look promising. The Taliban held a news conference whose language was peaceful, inclusive, intelligent, defining. Western outlets reported it with terms like skeptical, history of violence, doubt and fear. Only Aljazeera Network provided a complete transcript. It is short and well worth reading-
The program articulated includes-
-desire for peace at home and abroad
-amnesty for all who fought against the Taliban, regardless of role
-no harm to any foreign nationals, specifically US nationals
-border security
-embassy security
-no attacks launched from Afghan soil on other nations
-opium production and trade to be ended
-rights of women under Sharia
-law to be written under Sharia
-open press access, invitation to criticism, understanding the nation and government are Islamic
-home and personal safety- no interrogations, reprisals, violence
-Taliban have evolved and learned in 20 years
Four things strike me out of this. First, it is a reasonable set of national principles. Second, Islamic values will control law, women's rights, press, and likely other aspects of the nation, which they have every right to do. Third, the Taliban claim to have learned from the violent, brutal oppression of 20 years ago. Last, these statements are an open door to a US relationship and cooperation.
The US has spent most of the last 75 years exporting democracy and our consumptive, sybaritic way of life. That is not a divine mission, and it often makes us critical and priggish. We seem unable to respect nations with other forms of government, or who do not accord women, gays, and minorities the rights that we believe they should have. But this kind of moral preaching is no way to run a foreign policy. It produces enemies, not conversion. If the US will accept its lumps, respect the values of the Taliban Afghan government, and not preach and condemn, I believe we have a chance for a practical relationship. If not, we will have an ice-cold stalemate of the sort we've had with Iran since 1979.
Ted
First, thanks for a review of a history of modern Afghanistan, a history that is often confusing and morally ambiguous. I found this quite informative.
ReplyDeleteSecond, I agree that this was a...hmm, not "war," nor "battle," but, I suppose, a prolonged military action that was never going to produce the kind of western-style democracy the U.S. wanted to create.
It is sad to think of the terrible waste of human life and resources that have been poured into Afghanistan over the years, especially in the last two decades. From the way you described it, the U.S., after achieving its stated physically definable, practical war aims, instead tried to go after the much harder governmental and social goals - rather like so many who win at gambling, then instead of walking away from the table, continue to gamble and lose all their winnings and more.
I especially feel for the Afghanistans who aided western forces, hoping that in return they would be able to emmigrate with their families to the west, there to try to live and work in peace. Their lives are in grave danger at present and if the U.S. turns its back on those brave Afghans, our shame will be well merited.
-D-
An Armenian I know read your blog and had this to say (pertinent to the Aljazeera proposal for "new" and "reasonable" rule by the Taliban):
ReplyDeleteMost of what Ted says is right on. But he misses key fundamental facts about Islam that takes the Qur'an and the Hadith literally and tries to live by those anachronistic laws, i.e., 7th century desert laws initiated and propagated by their Messenger: Muhammed., two examples, a husband can chastise his wife by beating her; or, it is lawful to lie against any infidel (Christians in particular), and the Muslim party is under no obligation to honor any and all agreements, with the infidel party (that is exactly what the Taliban did with the 'agreement' reached in Doha(?) between the US and Taliban delegates.
(Note; the Taliban refused to allow the Afghan Government to participate in those talks!).
The Islam culture and the Western norms are like oil and water. They DO NOT mix.
In addition, the US and the Central Afghan Government neglected the countryside, when the Taliban was slowly and methodically winning them over. With 15+ year patience, the Taliban, strategically planned ( geographically),where and how to start their occupation ,used subtle persuasion (even threatening some village leaders), won the support of each village or town, and moved on for the final kill...