The Ukrainio-Russian War (? Russo-Ukraine?) drags on. In 2014, when Russia seized Crimea, I predicted she would seize the rail line from Sevastopol to Donetsk. This is an essential step to maximizing Sevastopol's utility as a port. And that is exactly what Russia has done over the last 8 years.
The current war is being painted as a Russian failure, and in some ways it is. Russia has lost far more material than expected, and failed to capture Kiev by a coup de main. Unfavorable comparisons have been made between the US conquest of Iraq and the Russian failure in Ukraine, ignoring the much greater size of Ukraine, its much better equipped army, and the poorer equipment in Russia as compared with US material.
But in most other ways, Russia is getting what it wants. It now controls about 25% of Ukrainian territory, including most of the country east of the Dniepr River. Efforts to cripple Russia financially have failed. Various western banks refuse to accept Rubles for loan payment, and the West has frozen Russian foreign currency assets, but this has resulted rather more in damage to western banking institutions than to Russian credit. Russia stockpiled about 600 billion in foreign currency and gold, or 40% of its GDP. That's the equivalent of the US having 8 trillion in cash and gold. Everyone knows they have that cash, and China is extending credit. Most revealingly, Europe has bought 18 biullion dollars of Russian oil and natural gas since the start of the war 6 months ago.
The time, space, and material scales of Russian war are alien to the West. Every western invader has learned that the very hard way. No one has conquered Russia. Russia lost 3500 tanks and 2 million men in the first MONTH of the German 1941 invasion. And won. Russia did not win a pitched battle against Napoleon, but won the camnpaign even though Moscow was occupied. Russia has always traded men, material, and space for time. To date, Russia has lost about 1500 tanks and about 20,000 men killed. The Russian material and manpower losses look terrible to the US, which has only 4800 tanks. There are breathless reports of Russian demoralization. But Russia has historically shrugged off these losses in pursuit of their straegic goals, and they're doing it now.
And once again, winter looms, and it is going to help Russia, just not in the way it usually has.
Ukraine relies on Russian imports for 60% of its natural gas and 25% of its total energy consumption. Europe relies on Russia for nearly 40% of its natural gas, and 25% of its total winter energy supplies. There are broad plans to end dependence on Russian energy by 2027 (or 2030, or 2035, depending on what report and document you read). That's a great idea, except that winter is coming in three months, not ten years. Several knowledgeable and serious analyses of European energy options all come to the same conclusion- Europe cannot replace Russian natural gas at this time. There are insufficient alternative sources, inadequate port facilities for more LNG, inadequate pipeline access from the Middle East.
Now winter is going to further Russian aims. Russia is in a position financially to end exports to Europe. Doing so will cause marked consumer and industrial dislocation in the EU, which will cause social unrest. It will be too easy to demand an end to military and financial support of Ukraine in return for turning the gas tap back on. Ukraine itself has no alternative energy sources, and will be much worse off than the EU. In WW2 Germany literally ran out of fuel in late 1944, crippling military efforts. Ukraine is going to face similar problems, and then the Russians, the best winter fighters in Europe except for the Finns, will attack, with the rivers frozen, the civilian population cold and hungry, and their allies strapped for energy themselves. Russia is shutting down a major Gazprom pipeline for 'maintenance', but everyone knows better. Next time it will be 6 months of maintenance.
Russia is happy to wait for winter, letting the West imagine their tactical and strategic defeat. I continue to believe this war ends with a negotiated settlement, pressed hard by the EU, with significant territorial and alliance concessions by Ukraine. And in a further ominous association, The United States is far, far more dependent on China, our financial and strategic enemy, than Europe is on Russia. The day we try to force China to modify policy, they turn off the computer/phone/audio/clothing tap, call in the 1 trillion in debt they hold, and watch the United States descend into consumer and financial collapse. We are every bit as vulnerable as western Europe, and for the same,, stupid, consumerist reasons- policy driven by prices instead of self-reliance.
The West, in its idealistic and ideological foolishness, pushed for Ukraine to be a western ally instead of a buffer state, provoiking this war. Now our foolishness leaves it completely vulnerable to energy deprivation, a lever that will bring a Russian victory. Our fatuous expectations of democracy and free market expansion have led us to limit our imports from Russia, increasing prices and harming our own economy, and all for nothing.
Ted
Right on target, as usual. Additionally the negotiated settlement to which you refer will be temporary. Once Russia rearms sufficiently, they will take what's left. Human life is immaterial to them, whether theirs or their enemy's. Meanwhile, the destruction that has occurred in Ukraine will never be rebuilt except to the extent it aids Russia.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I basically agree with your analysis. The Ukrainian military has done a remarkable job so far, imposing heavy casualties on the Russians and exposing weaknesses in their tactics and ability to conquer territory quickly and easily. I have also seen several suggestions that the coming winter weather will work to the advantage of the defenders, since there is apparently a good deal of boggy territory which will make it difficult for Russian amour to move except on hardened roads that are more easily defended than open territory. This should help at least prolong the existing near stalemate until spring. But, as you suggest, by that time, there may well be heavy pressure from the European countries to force some sort of settlement due to their heavy reliance on Russian oil and natural gas. This could have been largely made up for by the US except for the Biden administrations war on American energy, which they seem to be determined to pursue regardless of the consequences either at home or abroad.
DeleteWith regard to China, the short sighted greed of our political and business leaders as put us in a very untenable situation that I really can see no way out of short of winning a war with the Chinese, which I am not at all sure we are capable of at the present time. The stupidity, greed, and short shortsightedness of our leadership the major threat to our future as a free nation.