We are told that we can only know what we see. In fact, the opposite is true- we can only see what we know. If we do not know that bananas are edible, we will starve in the midst of a banana grove, never realizing they are food. Too often, what we 'know' is based on a single experience or a small range of experience. We then generalize from that to make broader conclusions which are often not valid.
Such reasoning is anecdotal, meaning without records. In Roman times marriages and other contracts were recorded and placed in archives, and ecdotal. Those outside such records were anecdotal, without secretarial recording. Anecdotal reasoning is seductive but dangerous.
Consider the current oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. It is being described as an ecological, commercial and fishing disaster, and it may well be those things. Should we end or limit offshore drilling because of it? Many politicians are voicing opposition to such drilling as we watch affecting reports of the size and potential danger of the spill. As anecdotal news, the story is compelling, and it is difficult to say those images are not valid, or not a true representation of danger.
In fact, most oil leaking into the water comes not from oil wells but from natural seepage out of the ocean floor. This is the equivalent process to the ground level seepage that led to the discovery of oil in Titusville, PA. 62% of oil in ocean waters comes from such seepage.
How about confining the concern to oil pumped up by humans, or transported by humans? It turns out that 0.001% of all oil pumped from offshore rigs has leaked in the last 25 years, That's an extraordinary record that cannot be refuted by highly emotive photographs. Further, consider the alternatives. We are not about to become a society free of fossil fuels, neither now or in the next 20-25 years. Our needs are going to increase. Is it better to get what we are going to need from offshore wells we control, or imported in ships we do not register? The amount of oil spilled into the ocean from ship wrecks is far greater than that from offshore rigs. Also, ships don't generally sink in the middle of the ocean; they sink near shore, with potentially far greater ecological damage than an offshore well.
The gulf spill is awful, no question. But it is inappropriate to make policy simply on one experience. We will need oil for years to come. It is better to consider nuclear sources and reduction in use rather than an overreaction to a single spill that ends offshore drilling.
Anecdotal evidence is often compelling, but it is also often wrong. It certainly is this time.
Ted
Such reasoning is anecdotal, meaning without records. In Roman times marriages and other contracts were recorded and placed in archives, and ecdotal. Those outside such records were anecdotal, without secretarial recording. Anecdotal reasoning is seductive but dangerous.
Consider the current oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. It is being described as an ecological, commercial and fishing disaster, and it may well be those things. Should we end or limit offshore drilling because of it? Many politicians are voicing opposition to such drilling as we watch affecting reports of the size and potential danger of the spill. As anecdotal news, the story is compelling, and it is difficult to say those images are not valid, or not a true representation of danger.
In fact, most oil leaking into the water comes not from oil wells but from natural seepage out of the ocean floor. This is the equivalent process to the ground level seepage that led to the discovery of oil in Titusville, PA. 62% of oil in ocean waters comes from such seepage.
How about confining the concern to oil pumped up by humans, or transported by humans? It turns out that 0.001% of all oil pumped from offshore rigs has leaked in the last 25 years, That's an extraordinary record that cannot be refuted by highly emotive photographs. Further, consider the alternatives. We are not about to become a society free of fossil fuels, neither now or in the next 20-25 years. Our needs are going to increase. Is it better to get what we are going to need from offshore wells we control, or imported in ships we do not register? The amount of oil spilled into the ocean from ship wrecks is far greater than that from offshore rigs. Also, ships don't generally sink in the middle of the ocean; they sink near shore, with potentially far greater ecological damage than an offshore well.
The gulf spill is awful, no question. But it is inappropriate to make policy simply on one experience. We will need oil for years to come. It is better to consider nuclear sources and reduction in use rather than an overreaction to a single spill that ends offshore drilling.
Anecdotal evidence is often compelling, but it is also often wrong. It certainly is this time.
Ted
Comments
Post a Comment