As usual there has been much noise but little rationality in the current round of political 'analysis'. There is too much crowing and too much pouting, always finger pointing. Ugly. The two gubernatorial races highlight what I see as lessons for Republicans and Democrats, and lessons for the electorate.
In VA, a traditionally Republican state, a Tea Party candidate lost to Terry Mcauliffe, former DNC chairman. In NJ a moderate Republican won big in a deeply Democratic state. In VA the Republican candidate started with more than a 10 point lead, and fell 20 points in the polls to be 12 back before closing rapidly in the last 10 days. In NJ the Republican ran way ahead the entire race. Why?
Cuccinelli's severe social conservatism turned off lots of voters, that's why. and Christie's compassion and involvement won many voters. For any candidate to win, they must attract voters beyond the party base. 25 years ago the Democrats were the party of peacenik, hairy crazies. Today the Republicans are branded the party of old white men. They are losing women's votes, Hispanic votes and Black votes. And if I were any of those I would vote Democratic as well.
Cuccinelli's stance was emphatically and inflexibly pro-life. He was one step removed from the candidates of 'legitimate rape'. He was overtly Christian, anti-immigration and financially conservative to the point of harshness. This did not sell. He fell like a rock, dropping more voters the more he talked. Then Obamacare fell apart just in time to save him from humiliation, and he ultimately lost by less than 2 points. Cuccinelli won less than 9% of blacks and less than43% of women. No one can win with numbers like that.
In contrast, Christie won Republicans overwhelmingly, but he blew through Democratic constituencies as well. he won 45% of Hispanics and 20+% of Blacks, the best numbers for any Republican in many a year. He won women voters. His overtly conservative agenda played well in a Democratic state.
Why? What is the lesson for Republicans?
Christie won by showing people he really cared about them. Not about policy or about party, but them. he was able to argue articulately that his policies would make their lives better, in part because he had already delivered the goods against hostile unions and a hostile legislature. Cuccinelli's message in essence played as 'I don't give a damn what happens to you. This is what I believe'. No one of any party can win by only appealing to the base like that. The more the base is fired up, the less appeal that candidate is likely to have among other groups. This has been true for Obama, it was true for Bush (less so) and it was true for Cuccinelli.
It is important to remember that we all live here. We are not enemies, and the press argot that turns politics into blood sport is completely inappropriate. Would you engage in blood sport with your children? our neighbors? You can't look for victory or crushing your enemy, etc, without fracturing society. It is not merely a matter of civility but of societal function that we acknowledge the humanity and rationality of those who do not share our opinion. A leader must lead all the people, not merely one group that gets to trample everyone else.
Christie was able to do this; Cuccinelli was not. And the Republican Party ahs not been able to convince people they will lead all the people. They win gerrymandered Congressional districts just like the Democrats do (and I decry the practice), and the are close in the Senate. They are far away from winning any presidential election, and a policy of 'no' sounds and is churlish.
So what do I think is a winning formula?
Republicans need to stop telling people what to believe and who to sleep with, and articulate loudly why free market, small government solutions work best. There is plenty of data but no one talks about it. They waste their time talking about abortion, homosexuals, school prayer and God. My suggestions-
-lose anti-abortion language. It's a dead issue. It's legal. Now stop it. talking about abortion 40 years after Roe v Wade is like talking about alcohol as a social demon 40 years after prohibition ended, in 1973.
-acquiesce in homosexual marriage. The State became involved in sanctioning marriage. It cannot discriminate on sexual orientation or gender. If you don't like gay marriage that is your right. But as a political issue it is a non-starter.
-present an alternative to Obamacare. Cuccinelli closed rapidly on McAuliffe by playing on Obamacare. But if you want to lead, you must offer a solution. Just returning to the status quo ante is not going to fly.
-take the lead on immigration reform, not by leading with walls and guns but with a clear path to citizenship.
-get out of Afghanistan. Continue Drone strikes.
-push for balanced budgets and limited taxes.
We have grafted a social welfare apparatus onto a form of limited Republican government. We cannot have big services and small taxes. Some taxes will have to be raised, and some entitlements will have to be cut. What's so hard about that compromise? But compromise. There can not be any party arguing that they are 'right', righteous', smarter than their enemies, etc, etc.
There is much to learn. Let's hope everyone is listening.
Ted
In VA, a traditionally Republican state, a Tea Party candidate lost to Terry Mcauliffe, former DNC chairman. In NJ a moderate Republican won big in a deeply Democratic state. In VA the Republican candidate started with more than a 10 point lead, and fell 20 points in the polls to be 12 back before closing rapidly in the last 10 days. In NJ the Republican ran way ahead the entire race. Why?
Cuccinelli's severe social conservatism turned off lots of voters, that's why. and Christie's compassion and involvement won many voters. For any candidate to win, they must attract voters beyond the party base. 25 years ago the Democrats were the party of peacenik, hairy crazies. Today the Republicans are branded the party of old white men. They are losing women's votes, Hispanic votes and Black votes. And if I were any of those I would vote Democratic as well.
Cuccinelli's stance was emphatically and inflexibly pro-life. He was one step removed from the candidates of 'legitimate rape'. He was overtly Christian, anti-immigration and financially conservative to the point of harshness. This did not sell. He fell like a rock, dropping more voters the more he talked. Then Obamacare fell apart just in time to save him from humiliation, and he ultimately lost by less than 2 points. Cuccinelli won less than 9% of blacks and less than43% of women. No one can win with numbers like that.
In contrast, Christie won Republicans overwhelmingly, but he blew through Democratic constituencies as well. he won 45% of Hispanics and 20+% of Blacks, the best numbers for any Republican in many a year. He won women voters. His overtly conservative agenda played well in a Democratic state.
Why? What is the lesson for Republicans?
Christie won by showing people he really cared about them. Not about policy or about party, but them. he was able to argue articulately that his policies would make their lives better, in part because he had already delivered the goods against hostile unions and a hostile legislature. Cuccinelli's message in essence played as 'I don't give a damn what happens to you. This is what I believe'. No one of any party can win by only appealing to the base like that. The more the base is fired up, the less appeal that candidate is likely to have among other groups. This has been true for Obama, it was true for Bush (less so) and it was true for Cuccinelli.
It is important to remember that we all live here. We are not enemies, and the press argot that turns politics into blood sport is completely inappropriate. Would you engage in blood sport with your children? our neighbors? You can't look for victory or crushing your enemy, etc, without fracturing society. It is not merely a matter of civility but of societal function that we acknowledge the humanity and rationality of those who do not share our opinion. A leader must lead all the people, not merely one group that gets to trample everyone else.
Christie was able to do this; Cuccinelli was not. And the Republican Party ahs not been able to convince people they will lead all the people. They win gerrymandered Congressional districts just like the Democrats do (and I decry the practice), and the are close in the Senate. They are far away from winning any presidential election, and a policy of 'no' sounds and is churlish.
So what do I think is a winning formula?
Republicans need to stop telling people what to believe and who to sleep with, and articulate loudly why free market, small government solutions work best. There is plenty of data but no one talks about it. They waste their time talking about abortion, homosexuals, school prayer and God. My suggestions-
-lose anti-abortion language. It's a dead issue. It's legal. Now stop it. talking about abortion 40 years after Roe v Wade is like talking about alcohol as a social demon 40 years after prohibition ended, in 1973.
-acquiesce in homosexual marriage. The State became involved in sanctioning marriage. It cannot discriminate on sexual orientation or gender. If you don't like gay marriage that is your right. But as a political issue it is a non-starter.
-present an alternative to Obamacare. Cuccinelli closed rapidly on McAuliffe by playing on Obamacare. But if you want to lead, you must offer a solution. Just returning to the status quo ante is not going to fly.
-take the lead on immigration reform, not by leading with walls and guns but with a clear path to citizenship.
-get out of Afghanistan. Continue Drone strikes.
-push for balanced budgets and limited taxes.
We have grafted a social welfare apparatus onto a form of limited Republican government. We cannot have big services and small taxes. Some taxes will have to be raised, and some entitlements will have to be cut. What's so hard about that compromise? But compromise. There can not be any party arguing that they are 'right', righteous', smarter than their enemies, etc, etc.
There is much to learn. Let's hope everyone is listening.
Ted
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